The Rise of Rhône and Fall of Cabernet
‘Psssst, hey you wanna buy some great wine on the cheap, Napa Cabernet to be specific. Yeah, I got 30,000 gallons and it’s 30 bucks a gallon. That’s 180,000 bottles, $5 per. DM me if you’re interested.’
We’ve documented the oversupply of California wine, declining wine consumption and changes occurring in wine country. We’re always considering it’s impact on you, the California Wine Lover. This imbalance of Product Vs. Consumption is causing pain at wineries. This means wineries are offering more sales, BOGOs and offers. In short, you’re going to save money on your favorite wines.
One Paso Robles winery recently announced they are yanking out Cabernet Sauvignon grape and replacing much of it with Rhône style wine grape (Syrah, Grenache, Mourvedre, Viognier, etc.) We at CBW wondered what to make of this. If they’re headed in this direction they clearly are selling less Cabernet Sauvignon than they produce. And, with a glut of bulk Cabernet for sale in the open market they’re not likely to sell it.
Is this decline a local trend? What is the rest of the state experiencing? Is this a new trend where consumers are looking for softer red wine? Has Cabernet Sauvignon’s time come and gone? Is Cabernet following Merlot into the dustbin of consumer preferences?
| ‘Grocery Outlet recently released their version of ‘Two Buck Chuck’ made popular in 2002 by Trader Joe’s and Bronco Wines. This 2025 alternative version titled Second Cheapest Wine slides into your basket at $4.99……These are clearly bulk wine from prime areas suffering with a juice glut.’ |
We went to WineBusiness.com, a great resource for wine trends and analytics. Rummaging through their bulk wine for sale listings we found an interesting trend. We fired up the Big Boy Calculator, tallying the many gallons available on the open bulk market. We were surprised at our 7 foot long tape of numbers.
California is certainly flush with Cabernet Sauvignon. You might say Cabernet demand is declining. Or, it is simply overplanted. Winemakers hitched their wagon to Cabernet Sauvignon thinking it was to forever be King of Wines.
It appears the King is losing his crown.
Here is an overview of the Cabernet Sauvignon oversupply. Zinfandel is close behind.
Gallons Bulk Wine For Sale In California
217,999 gallons Cabernet Sauvignon
102,113 gallons Zinfandel
68,357 gallons Pinot Noir
56,878 gallons Chardonnay
38,675 gallons Sauvignon Blanc
22,403 gallons Syrah
Napa, Sonoma and Marin county wineries find themselves grasping empty bottles at the end of this party. They have the most bulk Cabernet available-for-sale, 46 listings. Paso Robles and Temecula, both large Cabernet producers, have only a single bulk wine listing per region. This matches Nielsen IQ reports citing all of California Cabernet Sauvingon sales falling 5% from 2022 to 2024. Last September Napa Valley Grapegrowers issued an alert advising members an unstable market means greape spot prices mean members could find sale prices lower than production costs. The spot market for grapes has been difficult, with prices often failing to meet production costs. Unsold fruit remains an issue. Bankruptcies will continue.
This glut of bulk Napa Valley California Cabernet equals 1,307,994 bottles of wine. And this is just part of the glut. Brokers sell bulk wine not included in the nearby graphic. As a graphic below notes, some of these wineries are offering up to 30,000 gallons of bulk Cabernet wine at $30 per gallon. That equates to $6 per bottle.
Where can you find these discounted Cabernet wines?
We suggest keeping an eye on discounters like Total Wine, BevMo, Grocery Outlet, Costco, Food For Less, Smart & Final etc. You may not recognize the normal labels, the brand or estate. Look for American Viticultural Area (AVA) listings on the labels, like Oakville, St. Helena, Yountville, Coomsville, Calistoga, Dry Creek, Alexander Valley, Dry Creek Valley, Sonoma Valley and Napa Valley. They’ll rebrand wine and charge less for what is called an NDA Wine (Non Disclosure Agreement) or Private Label wine. They’ll bottle excess wine as a new brand, forcing the distributor not to disclose it’s origin, it’s creator.
You are seeing these wines find their way into retail stores. Grocery Outlet recently released their version of ‘Two Buck Chuck‘ made popular in 2002 by Trader Joe’s and Bronco Wines. This 2025 alternative version titled Second Cheapest Wine slides into your basket at $4.99 with Pinot Noir from Willamette Valley, Sauvignon Blanc from Sonoma Valley, Chardonnay and Cabernet Sauvignon from Napa. These are clearly bulk wine from prime areas suffering with a juice glut.
We’ll review these shortly but first we need to find the Cabernet Sauvignon. During a local store visit stock clerks told us the Cab Sauv sold out in two days. They have plenty of the Sauv Blanc, Chardonnay and Pinot for sale.
Good hunting to you.
Some notes on our wine ranking system.
Bill & Erin Hodge write about California Wine, the estates & winemakers producing them and educational information about Vino. Living in California Wine Country provides a front row seat to the places you want to visit the most here in the Golden State.
– -✰ means -What’s next on your list of wines
-✰ means -Not liking it too much
✰ means -We’ll drink this wine, especially if it’s hosted!
✰+ means -You’ve got our attention and we might buy this wine.
✰+ + means -We’re hooked and we’re going to buy this wine.
When you see -✰/✰+ with a slash, it means we disagree.